How do you predict what members will cancel?

We explain what the model is and how it works to predict the members who will cancel in the next month.

Emetry Wine Club Attrition Model Predicts Cancellations


How it Works

The club attrition model is a series of algorithms that proactively calculate a club member’s inclination to cancel their wine club.  The Emetry model uses a wineries behavioral and demographic DTC data and several predictive models to build the algorithm capable of responding accurately to each factor.  The algorithm also adapts to each individual winery, big or small, and returns predictions custom to each brand.

Every active club member is run through the model, it provides a probability score on the likelihood the member will cancel in the next month. The closer to "100%", the more likely the member is to cancel. We divided the probability scores into the following cohorts.  

Endangered Members:

Who they are: Your most endangered members  
Probability to Cancel:  90-100% 
Action Suggestions: Reach out in a personal way (we suggest a call, personal email, or handwritten note), ensuring they feel valued and supported. Address any pain points they may be experiencing.

Vulnerable Members:

Who they are: Members displaying signs of distress.
Probability to Cancel:  60-80% 
Action Suggestions: Reach out to drive awareness of benefits, create a personal relationship, or ask for their feedback via a survey.  

Content Members:

Who they are: They are showing little to no signs of stress.
Probability to Cancel:  0-50% 
Action Suggestions: We recommend a soft touch.  Check-in on their last shipment, let them know about an upcoming event or provide value via a recipe to pair with their last shipment or simple pairing suggestions so they can wow their friends. 

Creating Your Wine Club Loyalty Loop

Because the model also measures member endangerment monthly on a sliding scale you are able to see members drifting into the danger zone. This opens up a whole new range of interaction opportunities based on individual member contentment.  Once you've settled on the right interventions for each cohort and level of endangerment you can. use marketing automation and let it work for you behind the scenes.